CPC 6–10 / 8–14 Day Extended Outlooks Explained

CPC 6–10 / 8–14 Day Extended Outlooks ExplainedHow to read the Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day and 8–14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks — probability shading, equal-chances zones, what "normal" means, and how to use them operationally.Once the NWS 7-day forecast runs out, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) takes over. The 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks don't give you a high temperature for next Tuesday — they give you a probability that the period will be warmer (or wetter) than normal. Different question, different chart.What the colors meanThe maps shade probability of "above normal" or "below normal" for the period as a whole. White areas mean equal chances. Saturated color = high confidence; pale color = lean.

Red (temperature): Above-normal temperature favored. Deeper red = higher confidence.

Blue (temperature): Below-normal temperature favored.

Green (precip): Above-normal precipitation favored.

Brown (precip): Below-normal precipitation favored.

White / EC: Equal chances — no clear signal in either direction. Means the model spread is wide enough that "near normal" is the safest bet.

What "normal" meansThe 1991–2020 climatology for the same calendar window. So a "70% chance of above-normal temps" outlook for late May means warmer than the 1991–2020 average for late May at that location — not warmer than today, not warmer than the long-term record. Useful for energy / agriculture / scheduling, not so useful for "should I bring a jacket Tuesday".The two products side by side

6–10 day: Days 6 through 10 from issuance. Bridges the gap between the deterministic NWS 7-day and the longer outlooks. This one usually has the most skill.

8–14 day: Days 8 through 14. Wider window, lower confidence, more "EC" (white) coverage. Still useful for season-aware planning.

How to use it operationally

Don't read it as a daily forecast — it's a period probability.

Do use it for planning irrigation, fire-weather staffing, or "is the next cold snap likely to be a thing?"

Watch the change — outlooks issued on consecutive days often shift. A region that flips from "above normal precip" to "equal chances" in 24 hours tells you the operational forecasters lost confidence in the wet pattern.

Pair with the 30-day / 90-day for a fuller picture — CPC publishes monthly and seasonal outlooks too.

Source: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov; new outlook issued daily around 3 PM Eastern.Part of the BloomWX learn library — beginner-friendly explainers covering every surface of the BloomWX weather dashboard. Open BloomWX to see live data for any U.S. county.